Discussion:
Conservative negotiating strategy becoming clearer - and looking smarter
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James Harris
2017-10-09 08:16:56 UTC
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As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.

I am still wary of the whole process and I can see significant causes
for concern. But seen in a good light, in extremely difficult
circumstances the government could be playing a blinder. Of course, we
don't know what they have in mind, and that's as it should be. I suspect
the civil service has been a big help in working out a strategy and that
we and the EU are, rightly, only seeing little bits of it at a time.
--
James Harris
Ophelia
2017-10-09 18:59:55 UTC
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"James Harris" wrote in message news:orfb9q$tor$***@dont-email.me...

As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.

I am still wary of the whole process and I can see significant causes
for concern. But seen in a good light, in extremely difficult
circumstances the government could be playing a blinder. Of course, we
don't know what they have in mind, and that's as it should be. I suspect
the civil service has been a big help in working out a strategy and that
we and the EU are, rightly, only seeing little bits of it at a time.


James Harris

==

Yep, I'm with you there ... fingers crossed!
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk
James Hammerton
2017-10-09 22:01:11 UTC
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Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
Why do you think the plans are looking ever smarter?

Regards,

James
--
James Hammerton
http://jhammerton.wordpress.com
http://www.magnacartaplus.com/
James Harris
2017-10-10 21:09:52 UTC
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Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
Why do you think the plans are looking ever smarter?
There are indications that they made their plans long ago and are
revealing them bit by bit, as a card player may choose which card to
play and when. There's basically nothing new in recent statements but
the government is adding emphasis or filling in details as needed.

You may recall that my unease for a long time has been about the
government getting Brexit through parliament. I thought that they would
need to call an election before we left the EU. Unfortunately, the one
they called was inconclusive and I wouldn't be surprised if another one
were to be needed before we finally exit. (That will be a significant
risk if it happens in an economic downturn.)

Given the pressures from the UK parliament, the British people and the
EU, May has to steer a very fine line. As her strategy is becoming
clearer I think we see the way they hope to do that. Things such as

* Effusively positive approach to the EU negotiation in the apparent
belief that an EU deal is almost essential for both sides. Willing to
give a lot to get a deal, including money and commitments. Willing to
trade with any advantages we have including money, security, access to
UK waters, regulation, citizens' rights, etc.

* Treating other trade deals almost as an afterthought. Willing to
postpone even the USA in pursuit of appeasing the EU.

* Achieving separation slowly so as to minimise the transition period
they've had in mind for a long time. Wanting to form a truly positive
bond with the EU.

* Having a strategy to get there but undertaking a detailed plan for the
fallback.

Don't get me wrong. It's not at all what I want from Brexit. But it does
seem pragmatic and more likely to steer the ship through the rocks of
the parliamentary process.
--
James Harris
MM
2017-10-12 08:42:46 UTC
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On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 22:09:52 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
Why do you think the plans are looking ever smarter?
There are indications that they made their plans long ago and are
revealing them bit by bit, as a card player may choose which card to
play and when.
Didn't I predict this yonks ago? That right from June 24 the
government decided we weren't going to leave, but it would need time
to ensure that conditions were noticeably worsening for the general
public to realise the folly of Brexit. I think I compared it to The
Truman Show, in which everything is scripted. Maybe even the letters
falling down were arranged beforehand -- to give the impression that
the government is failing on all fronts and it's Brexit's fault.

Yesterday at the first PMQs after the party conferences David Davis on
the front bench looked even more woebegone than usual over the past
few days. Perhaps because he's due today to fetch up in Brussels fro
another good kicking from Michel Barnier. Even Boris looked dejected.
Did anyone notice when Mrs May slammed her papers down hard on the
despatch box and everyone gasped? Was she angry, or did she feel a
faint coming on?

MM
m***@btopenworld.com
2017-10-12 10:17:36 UTC
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Post by MM
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 22:09:52 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
There are indications that they made their plans long ago and are
revealing them bit by bit, as a card player may choose which card to
play and when.
Didn't I predict this yonks ago?
You must have, you predict everything else. On might think hat by the Law of Averages, you get your predictions right occasionally. Your performance is outstripped by that fabled broken clock.
Post by MM
That right from June 24 the
government decided we weren't going to leave, but it would need time
to ensure that conditions were noticeably worsening for the general
public to realise the folly of Brexit. I think I compared it to The
Truman Show, in which everything is scripted. Maybe even the letters
falling down were arranged beforehand -- to give the impression that
the government is failing on all fronts and it's Brexit's fault.
And don't you think that the 75% of Brexiteers said to occupy the Tory benches might possibly see through that strategy.

What about the Eurosceptic section of the media. Are they supposed to be daft in your scheme of things?
abelard
2017-10-12 11:58:59 UTC
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Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by MM
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 22:09:52 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
There are indications that they made their plans long ago and are
revealing them bit by bit, as a card player may choose which card to
play and when.
Didn't I predict this yonks ago?
You must have, you predict everything else. On might think hat by the Law of Averages, you get your predictions right occasionally. Your performance is outstripped by that fabled broken clock.
Post by MM
That right from June 24 the
government decided we weren't going to leave, but it would need time
to ensure that conditions were noticeably worsening for the general
public to realise the folly of Brexit. I think I compared it to The
Truman Show, in which everything is scripted. Maybe even the letters
falling down were arranged beforehand -- to give the impression that
the government is failing on all fronts and it's Brexit's fault.
And don't you think that the 75% of Brexiteers said to occupy the Tory benches might possibly see through that strategy.
What about the Eurosceptic section of the media. Are they supposed to be daft in your scheme of things?
via guido:-

Sky Data poll
Which comes closer to your views regarding Brexit:
Any deal is better than no deal 26%
No deal is better than a bad deal 74%
--
www.abelard.org
MM
2017-10-14 08:09:23 UTC
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Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by MM
On Tue, 10 Oct 2017 22:09:52 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
There are indications that they made their plans long ago and are
revealing them bit by bit, as a card player may choose which card to
play and when.
Didn't I predict this yonks ago?
You must have, you predict everything else. On might think hat by the Law of Averages, you get your predictions right occasionally. Your performance is outstripped by that fabled broken clock.
Post by MM
That right from June 24 the
government decided we weren't going to leave, but it would need time
to ensure that conditions were noticeably worsening for the general
public to realise the folly of Brexit. I think I compared it to The
Truman Show, in which everything is scripted. Maybe even the letters
falling down were arranged beforehand -- to give the impression that
the government is failing on all fronts and it's Brexit's fault.
And don't you think that the 75% of Brexiteers said to occupy the Tory benches might possibly see through that strategy.
What about the Eurosceptic section of the media. Are they supposed to be daft in your scheme of things?
Of course they are. They are just feeding the public the reassuring
propaganda they think the public wants to hear. They are the real
traitors, for leading naive voters up the garden path to where the
creek starts -- and there's no paddles.

MM

m***@gmail.com
2017-10-10 09:24:21 UTC
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Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
I am still wary of the whole process and I can see significant causes
for concern. But seen in a good light, in extremely difficult
circumstances the government could be playing a blinder. Of course, we
don't know what they have in mind, and that's as it should be. I suspect
the civil service has been a big help in working out a strategy and that
we and the EU are, rightly, only seeing little bits of it at a time.>>
Well, I'm delighted that you're so pleased! :-)
True Blue
2017-10-10 10:03:10 UTC
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Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
I am still wary of the whole process and I can see significant causes
for concern. But seen in a good light, in extremely difficult
circumstances the government could be playing a blinder. Of course, we
don't know what they have in mind, and that's as it should be. I suspect
the civil service has been a big help in working out a strategy and that
we and the EU are, rightly, only seeing little bits of it at a time.
I'm reading this morning that May is telling the country to prepare for "no deal". WTO rules mean that any tariffs will be minimal, although the WTO has been largely silent on the matter to date. What does "no deal" mean? ISTM that it's;

"You have no right of abode in our country and UK nationals have no right of abode in yours. Each individual must apply for a residency visa or work visa"

"Tariffs between us are the same as they are for non-EU countries"

"Movement will be the same as before since we were always non-Schengen"

As far as EU citizens living here are concerned, I would go as far as telling the EU that we were not prepared to treat with Brussels at all and agreements would be only made with individual member States.
m***@btopenworld.com
2017-10-10 11:16:20 UTC
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Post by True Blue
I'm reading this morning that May is telling the country to prepare for "no deal". WTO rules mean that any tariffs will be minimal, although the WTO has been largely silent on the matter to date. What does "no deal" mean? ISTM that it's;
"You have no right of abode in our country and UK nationals have no right of abode in yours. Each individual must apply for a residency visa or work visa"
Not an area of concern for the WTO.
Post by True Blue
"Tariffs between us are the same as they are for non-EU countries"
That will be. WTO rules expressly forbid discrimination except in cases where a FTA is in operation.
Post by True Blue
"Movement will be the same as before since we were always non-Schengen"
Again not an area of concern for the WTO
Post by True Blue
As far as EU citizens living here are concerned, I would go as far as telling the EU that we were not prepared to treat with Brussels at all and agreements would be only made with individual member States.
I would offer exactly the same terms to the people concerned as individuals and leave the matter. They will presumably make up their own minds anyway. They are not goods or chattels. I would impress upon them the importance that everyone whether citizens, mere residents and even visitors are held subject to the same laws as anyone else. I would further emphasise that they have absolutely nothing to lose by remaining here since nobody can remove their citizenship of the country where they were born. They can go back anytime they wish whether temporarily (to visit relatives) or permanently.

They will never be asked to leave except by order of a court in the event of them becoming involved in criminal activity. Otherwise they would enjoy exactly the same rights as other British citizens and UK citizenship would become available to them under exactly the same terms and requirements demanded of applicants from anywhere else.
True Blue
2017-10-10 11:53:05 UTC
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Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by True Blue
I'm reading this morning that May is telling the country to prepare for "no deal". WTO rules mean that any tariffs will be minimal, although the WTO has been largely silent on the matter to date. What does "no deal" mean? ISTM that it's;
"You have no right of abode in our country and UK nationals have no right of abode in yours. Each individual must apply for a residency visa or work visa"
Not an area of concern for the WTO.
Post by True Blue
"Tariffs between us are the same as they are for non-EU countries"
That will be. WTO rules expressly forbid discrimination except in cases where a FTA is in operation.
Post by True Blue
"Movement will be the same as before since we were always non-Schengen"
Again not an area of concern for the WTO
As with "right of abode", I wasn't inferring it was a WTO matter. Just the way I would want a "no deal" to be.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by True Blue
As far as EU citizens living here are concerned, I would go as far as telling the EU that we were not prepared to treat with Brussels at all and agreements would be only made with individual member States.
I would offer exactly the same terms to the people concerned as individuals and leave the matter. They will presumably make up their own minds anyway. They are not goods or chattels. I would impress upon them the importance that everyone whether citizens, mere residents and even visitors are held subject to the same laws as anyone else. I would further emphasise that they have absolutely nothing to lose by remaining here since nobody can remove their citizenship of the country where they were born. They can go back anytime they wish whether temporarily (to visit relatives) or permanently.
They will never be asked to leave except by order of a court in the event of them becoming involved in criminal activity. Otherwise they would enjoy exactly the same rights as other British citizens and UK citizenship would become available to them under exactly the same terms and requirements demanded of applicants from anywhere else.
m***@btopenworld.com
2017-10-10 10:34:08 UTC
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Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
I don't think it is a question of smartness. Every negotiation process demands good faith on both sides. When one side his clearly not interested in allowing the matters at issue to progress then the other is wasting its time and the time has come when the other realised this and stopped trying to fool observers into believing that everything is hunky-dory.

I would have thought that by now the UK delegation would have walked away but think I can see why. Walking away would not bring Brexit closer by one second and the government majority is wafer thin and precarious.

One could not expect the oppositions, both political and through conviction, would sit on their hands over the interim.

If 'No deal' is to be the outcome, then from a strategic perspective, it should come as late in the process as possible. No political party wants the mantle round its neck that it destroyed Brexit and face the wrath of 17m voters and quite possibly more. Frome the opponents perspective, better by far that there should be no deal and the "incompetent Tories" loused up the chance of winning an agreement when there was one there for the offering, nobody can ever know!

However, the longer procrastination of the kind we have been seeing goes on, the more than the credibility of the second scenario above wears thin. Inother words the delay favours the government.

The final result will be, no deal for which the EU will take the blame, or the EU will come forward with something like the goods (an FTA) and Theresa will be able to stand before the HoC and inform them and the country "There, I told you it could be done and we have done it!" Then she will lead the Tories into the next election.

However, I think (and I must confess, hope) the first scenario the most likely and so stick to my prediction that she will go shortly after Brexit.

One thing that will not happen is that the Tory government collapses. Despite their pretensions, nobody will want that! Nobody will want to pick up that unholy grail.
abelard
2017-10-10 11:26:13 UTC
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Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by James Harris
As time is going by the Brexit negotiating strategy of the UK
Conservative government is steadily becoming clearer and, with some
reading between the lines and making assumptions about the bits we don't
yet know, the government's plans are looking ever smarter.
I don't think it is a question of smartness. Every negotiation process demands good faith on both sides. When one side his clearly not interested in allowing the matters at issue to progress then the other is wasting its time and the time has come when the other realised this and stopped trying to fool observers into believing that everything is hunky-dory.
I would have thought that by now the UK delegation would have walked away but think I can see why. Walking away would not bring Brexit closer by one second and the government majority is wafer thin and precarious.
One could not expect the oppositions, both political and through conviction, would sit on their hands over the interim.
If 'No deal' is to be the outcome, then from a strategic perspective, it should come as late in the process as possible. No political party wants the mantle round its neck that it destroyed Brexit and face the wrath of 17m voters and quite possibly more. Frome the opponents perspective, better by far that there should be no deal and the "incompetent Tories" loused up the chance of winning an agreement when there was one there for the offering, nobody can ever know!
However, the longer procrastination of the kind we have been seeing goes on, the more than the credibility of the second scenario above wears thin. Inother words the delay favours the government.
The final result will be, no deal for which the EU will take the blame, or the EU will come forward with something like the goods (an FTA) and Theresa will be able to stand before the HoC and inform them and the country "There, I told you it could be done and we have done it!" Then she will lead the Tories into the next election.
However, I think (and I must confess, hope) the first scenario the most likely and so stick to my prediction that she will go shortly after Brexit.
One thing that will not happen is that the Tory government collapses. Despite their pretensions, nobody will want that! Nobody will want to pick up that unholy grail.
surely gerry and his whiners would love to restart the process
of putting britain back into the poor house...

otherwise an excellent summary
--
www.abelard.org
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