Discussion:
Removing students from immigration figures - why the fuss?
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James Harris
2018-01-02 18:08:02 UTC
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Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
--
James Harris
JNugent
2018-01-04 03:24:15 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.

Some large proportion of them never leave.

Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
Vidcapper
2018-01-04 07:52:13 UTC
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Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
ISTM there are two categories

1. Those who stay on illegally after their visa expires - a relatively
small number

2. Those who legitimately settle here permanently after graduating
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
JNugent
2018-01-04 13:08:13 UTC
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Post by Vidcapper
Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
ISTM there are two categories
1. Those who stay on illegally after their visa expires - a relatively
small number
2. Those who legitimately settle here permanently after graduating
What is your reasoning for "a relatively small number"?

How do you know that the total of your 1 and 2 is not the majority of
"overseas" (ie, foreign) students?

I can accept that the majority of American, Canadian and Australian/NZ
students probably don't fall into either of your categories (because
they don't usually stay, and when they do they do so legally), and that
EU students can currently do as they like without let or hindrance. But
the RoW must be providing the largest part of the illegal contingent.
Vidcapper
2018-01-04 16:25:53 UTC
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Post by JNugent
Post by Vidcapper
Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
ISTM there are two categories
1. Those who stay on illegally after their visa expires - a relatively
small number
2. Those who legitimately settle here permanently after graduating
What is your reasoning for "a relatively small number"?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/aug/24/pressure-grows-for-immigration-targets-to-exclude-foreign-students
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
JNugent
2018-01-04 17:59:51 UTC
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Post by Vidcapper
Post by JNugent
Post by Vidcapper
Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
ISTM there are two categories
1. Those who stay on illegally after their visa expires - a relatively
small number
2. Those who legitimately settle here permanently after graduating
What is your reasoning for "a relatively small number"?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/aug/24/pressure-grows-for-immigration-targets-to-exclude-foreign-students
Hold the front page!

The Whingers' Gazette assures us that there are hardly any illegal
immigrants, and even if there are a lot of them, they don't claim money
from the taxpayer and even if they do claim it, it isn't much, and even
if it is a lot, we deserve it.

Come off it. When I asked for a source, I meant something credible.
James Harris
2018-01-04 14:05:58 UTC
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Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
Then why not count them (as immigrants) at the ends of their courses?
--
James Harris
JNugent
2018-01-04 17:56:15 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Post by JNugent
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Of course it does.
Some large proportion of them never leave.
Not counting them as immigrants is innumerate and illogical.
Then why not count them (as immigrants) at the ends of their courses?
What would be the point in that?

Some (many) would "forget" to declare themselves and would never be
recorded.

It's practical, realistic and informative to register at the beginning
of the course, just like with any other immigrant - on arrival.
Dan S. MacAbre
2018-01-04 13:19:39 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
If you don't include them, doesn't it just give the appearance that
something is being hidden or covered up?
James Harris
2018-01-04 14:08:16 UTC
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Post by Dan S. MacAbre
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
If you don't include them, doesn't it just give the appearance that
something is being hidden or covered up?
I would have thought that if they were counted as immigrants when they
arrive and then counted as emigrants when they leave that the figures
would be usable. Hence my query as to what the fuss is about.
--
James Harris
James Hammerton
2018-01-04 21:28:16 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after their
course completes?

How does that compare with total immigration?

If the former number is a small proportion of the latter, then it
doesn't matter much.

Anyone know how much it is?

Regards,

James
--
James Hammerton
http://jhammerton.wordpress.com
http://www.magnacartaplus.com/
JNugent
2018-01-04 22:46:13 UTC
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Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after their
course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
Why do you want to cover it up?
Post by James Hammerton
If the former number is a small proportion of the latter, then it
doesn't matter much.
Anyone know how much it is?
Every mickle makes a muckle.
James Hammerton
2018-01-07 15:40:09 UTC
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Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should
be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after their
course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
Why do you want to cover it up?
I don't.

Why do you make that inference?

Regards,

James
--
James Hammerton
http://jhammerton.wordpress.com
http://www.magnacartaplus.com/
JNugent
2018-01-07 18:10:42 UTC
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Post by James Hammerton
Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students
should be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after
their course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
Why do you want to cover it up?
I don't.
So you will not object to foreign student arrivals being counted as the
immigrants they are.

When they go, they go. Just like any other immigrant.
Post by James Hammerton
Why do you make that inference?
There is no reason to remove student migrants from the stats unless it
is done in order to deceive.

Well, not unless it is intended to create another parallel statistical
return which counts students in and also students out.

And what's the point of that?
johnny-knowall
2018-01-07 18:48:51 UTC
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Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students
should be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after
their course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
Why do you want to cover it up?
I don't.
So you will not object to foreign student arrivals being counted as the
immigrants they are.
How naive you are.
Post by JNugent
When they go, they go. Just like any other immigrant.
But they don’t go. That is the problem.
JNugent
2018-01-08 01:25:02 UTC
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Post by johnny-knowall
Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by JNugent
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students
should be removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after
their course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
Why do you want to cover it up?
I don't.
So you will not object to foreign student arrivals being counted as the
immigrants they are.
How naive you are.
Post by JNugent
When they go, they go. Just like any other immigrant.
But they don’t go. That is the problem.
And that is the exact reason why they must be counted-in as immigrants.
James Harris
2018-01-05 17:14:55 UTC
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Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
How many students end up staying on (legally or otherwise) after their
course completes?
How does that compare with total immigration?
If the former number is a small proportion of the latter, then it
doesn't matter much.
Anyone know how much it is?
I don't know if they calculate such figures. From the following,
migration stats are fairly vague estimates.

ONS international migration statistics
7. This is the measure most commonly used to estimate the numbers of
migrants to and from the UK. The first estimates are produced in the
last quarter of the subsequent year and more detailed information is
produced in the following Spring.

8. The main source is the International Passenger Survey (IPS) - a
voluntary sample survey of passengers travelling via the principal
airports, sea routes and the Channel Tunnel. Not all ports of entry are
covered. The survey asks questions about the intended length of stay of
travellers to and from the UK on which the first estimates of
international migration are based. The survey has a number of limitations:

a) It excludes land routes between Ireland and the UK. Ireland is part
of a common travel area with the UK and there is no survey of people
crossing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland.
b) It excludes most asylum seekers and their dependants.
c) The survey asks about peoples intentions which may not accord with
what they do in practice.
d) As a sample survey it only includes a very small sample of migrants
so there is a great degree of uncertainty. All the information on
inflows for the 2004 statistics were based upon 2801 interviews
(standard error 3.8%) and for the outflow, on just 755 interviews
(standard error 4.7%). That means that the grossed-up estimate of inflow
has a 95% chance of being somewhere between 478,600 and 557, 600, and
the outflow between 281,500 and 339,300. At the extreme, that means that
net inflow could be between 139,000 and 276,000.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/95


IMO a record based on passports, er, passing ports would be better.
--
James Harris
James Harris
2018-01-11 08:11:08 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Just mentioned on Radio 4 - a campaign group wanting the student numbers
removed from the stats for a specific reason: so that students are not
deterred from coming to study here.

I am not sure I see the logic of that, but there it is.
--
James Harris
JNugent
2018-01-11 17:28:01 UTC
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Post by James Harris
Post by James Harris
Some people are becoming quite exercised over whether students should be
removed from immigration figures or not. Does it matter much?
Just mentioned on Radio 4 - a campaign group wanting the student numbers
removed from the stats for a specific reason: so that students are not
deterred from coming to study here.
I am not sure I see the logic of that, but there it is.
There is absolutely no logic in it. It is therefore advisable to ignore
it and to register all overseas "students" (whether genuine or bogus) as
the immigrants they are.

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