2018-04-06 19:00:35 UTC
Don’t listen to the ” keep Theresa May at all costs ” Brexit siren voices
There are plenty of voices saying stick with Theresa May because that is the best hope of achieving Brexit. This goes against all the evidence about her intentions that we already have from her behaviour over the past eighteen months.
The danger with May carrying on as PM is that she will, either from panic (from time pressure and a terror of not getting any deal) or from a Machiavellian desire to surreptitiously sabotage Brexit, lead us into a deal which is called Brexit but which in reality leaves us inside the coils of the EU.
She has not stood firm on any issue. Her MO is simple, make Brexiteer speeches for home consumption then cave in to EU demands when she goes to Brussels. To date she has committed the UK to paying £40 billion; agreed to a lengthy transition period; agreed that those within not merely the EU but the European Economic Area who come before the end of the transition period will have the same rights as those who settled in the UK prior to March 2018; conceded that UK control over UK fisheries will not be established until Brexit is complete (with plenty of hints that EU boats will still be able fish in British waters; given an unequivocal promise that there will be no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and left the UK for at least another three years at the mercy of the European Court of Justice with an obligation to incorporate any new EU directives until Brexit is complete.
I realise the dangers of unseating May, but if she is going to keep on throwing away Brexit item by item the idea that we should hold tight to nurse for fear of something worse nurse does not hold water. Nor is it inevitable that Labour or a coalition of Labour and other parties would engineer a vote of no confidence if she left office. Labour is riven with scandal and ideology at present and it is telling that Labour have not been able to build a healthy lead in the polls. Corbyn may be popular amongst certain sections of the public but he is mistrusted by many voters.
There is no reason to believe May will not continue with the behaviour she has shown ever since the Brexit vote, namely, acting in a way to sabotage it, from the initial delay in triggering Article 50 to the most recent concessions on new EU migrants to the UK and fishing rights. The details of the proposed transition deal will give another firm steer as to where she intends the UK to be going. Even if it is only 2 years there could be a great deal of damage done (especially in the area of immigration) .
The other thing to bear in mind is that the latest the next general election can be held is June 2021. Assuming that this Parliament runs its full course that could mean the election is held only just after the 2 year transition period ends or just before it has ended if the election is held earlier. It is also quite possible that the two year transition period might be extended or not start in March 2019 . If Labour or a coalition of Labour and other parties wins that election it would be administratively easy even at that stage to keep the UK in the EU because we would not have effectively left.
If we are signed up to remaining in the EU by another name it is no good imagining that we can at a later date get a true Brexit because it is certain that after the next General Election there still be a remainer dominated Commons and a remainer dominated Lords plus all the dark state remainers in public service and the mass media.