Discussion:
Andrew Adonis: Here's a game plan to stop Brexit
Add Reply
James Harris
2017-09-10 11:55:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum


My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
--
James Harris
Ophelia
2017-09-10 14:44:40 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
"James Harris" wrote in message news:op396q$op2$***@dont-email.me...

FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum


My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.

James Harris

==

I thought Adonis was/had been a Labour politician?

If all that does come to pass Labour could be in big trouble at the next
election because a majority of their voters voted to Leave. I think they
are on dodgy ground changing their stance.

It will be interesting to see how May handles it. She was a Remoaner after
all.
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk
Incubus
2017-09-12 10:43:04 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum
My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
James Harris
==
I thought Adonis was/had been a Labour politician?
If all that does come to  pass Labour could be in big trouble at the
next election because a majority of their voters voted to Leave.  I
think they are on dodgy ground changing their stance.
The problem Labour faces with respect to electability is that it is
largely run by Socialists who think they know best and who will go
against their historical base of support - the white working class. The
EU and immigration are two subjects where their support base is at odds
with the party elite.

It's no suprise that Labour and Momentum are turning the debate to
worker's rights, Trades' Unions and social funding. It's also no
suprise that they are allying themselves with thugs. For them, it's not
about truth or improving people's lot; it's an ideological struggle.
Post by James Harris
It will be interesting to see how May handles it.  She was a Remoaner
after all.
May wanted to Remain but she has never been a Remoaner.
Ophelia
2017-09-12 18:31:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum
My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
James Harris
==
I thought Adonis was/had been a Labour politician?
If all that does come to pass Labour could be in big trouble at the next
election because a majority of their voters voted to Leave. I think they
are on dodgy ground changing their stance.
The problem Labour faces with respect to electability is that it is
largely run by Socialists who think they know best and who will go
against their historical base of support - the white working class. The
EU and immigration are two subjects where their support base is at odds
with the party elite.

It's no suprise that Labour and Momentum are turning the debate to
worker's rights, Trades' Unions and social funding. It's also no
suprise that they are allying themselves with thugs. For them, it's not
about truth or improving people's lot; it's an ideological struggle.
Post by James Harris
It will be interesting to see how May handles it. She was a Remoaner
after all.
May wanted to Remain but she has never been a Remoaner.

===

I am heartened you think so!
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk
James Harris
2017-09-12 23:51:58 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
...
Post by Ophelia
Post by Incubus
May wanted to Remain but she has never been a Remoaner.
===
I am heartened you think so!
I've been impressed with the number of Tories who were clearly Remainers
but who are not Remoaning and are getting on with doing the job we have
given them to do. If only all MPs behaved similarly....
--
James Harris
Ophelia
2017-09-13 14:11:13 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
...
Post by Ophelia
Post by Incubus
May wanted to Remain but she has never been a Remoaner.
===
I am heartened you think so!
I've been impressed with the number of Tories who were clearly Remainers
but who are not Remoaning and are getting on with doing the job we have
given them to do. If only all MPs behaved similarly....

James Harris

==

Indeed!
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk
7
2017-09-10 19:21:06 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote
But since then the UK has had an election which has delivered no mandate to
any political party to deliver Brexshit. Everything they doing now
is treason and done without a mandate that no one has given them
in a very democratic way.
MM
2017-09-11 07:53:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
On Sun, 10 Sep 2017 12:55:05 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
"largest ever" and a mere 1.2 million majority, much of which has
dwindled away by now if another referendum were held.

MM

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com
James Harris
2017-09-11 10:33:00 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
On Sun, 10 Sep 2017 12:55:05 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
"largest ever" and a mere 1.2 million majority, much of which has
dwindled away by now if another referendum were held.
Dwindled, has it? I've been tracking votes in real elections -
by-elections and the last general election, not opinion polls. In each
case, support for Brexit-supporting parties has only gone up, not down.
--
James Harris
Incubus
2017-09-12 10:01:07 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum
My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
What I got from that was 'We know best. We need to assert our position.
Those nasty Leavers have 'stolen our future'.

My contempt for the Left grows daily.
m***@btopenworld.com
2017-09-12 15:56:58 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum
My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
it would seem that the master plan suffers from a somewhat fatal double flaw.

In the first place there would seem to be no contingency plan for the scenario that no agreement is reached. Article 50 then *prescribes* that in that event then WTO arrangements will apply.

Whilst it is conceivable that a referendum might be held to consider any deal made, it's hard to see how a referendum could be held on a deal that has not been made.

The second centres on the scenario that a deal is done and our referendum turns it down. Doesn't that deal then become a no deal with similar consequences.

What is the origin of the idea that the EU will play along with the idea that a second referendum will reopen the negotiations.

As I read article 50, once the process has started Brexit will be automatic with or without and agreement. Should the UK in fact change its mind, then it will be required to make a new application and start from fresh.

"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49 [application to join]


In these days that would mean unanimous support from the council and a requirement to engage in the Euro project.

There is no provision in the treaty for a reversal of the process and a return to a status quo. That is unless they decide to make it up as they go on which would neither be unusual or surprising.
Andy Walker
2017-09-12 18:56:42 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
As I read article 50, once the process has started Brexit will be
automatic with or without and agreement.
Yes, but .... See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Should the UK in fact change
its mind, then it will be required to make a new application and
start from fresh.
Only if the UK has, in fact, actually left. See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from
the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing
that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2,
unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State
concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
[...]
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
There is no provision in the treaty for a reversal of the process and
a return to a status quo. That is unless they decide to make it up as
they go on which would neither be unusual or surprising.
Nothing that the EU does by way of making things up should
come as a surprise. We already have precedents for things like
"stopped clocks" [the room where it is always March 2019 ...]; and
two years [OK, 18 months] is ample time to invent and agree some new
treaty. But there is no need to reverse the process, only to slow it
down. The paragraph you quote already contains two such mechanisms:
(a) the date of entry into force of the agreement [which could be, eg,
2117, to allow a century of "transition"], or, failing that, (b) an
agreement to extend "two years" as far as desired [which again could
be 100 years if "necessary"].

Whether any such extension would ever be approved by the Great
British Public is another matter. But "events, dear boy, events", and
"a week is a long time in politics", as two of our more quotable PMs
have pointed out within your and my lifetimes. I can certainly imagine
events [military, political, economic, natural disaster] that would
change the landscape enough to make Brexit somewhat of a side-show.

[FTAOD, I am not personally in favour of such delays. I hope
Mr Davis has been crystal clear to M Barnier, in private at least as
much as in public, that we are leaving in March 2019 with or without
an agreement.]
--
Andy Walker,
Nottingham.
James Harris
2017-09-13 00:24:01 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Andy Walker
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
As I read article 50, once the process has started Brexit will be
automatic with or without and agreement.
Yes, but .... See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Should the UK in fact change
its mind, then it will be required to make a new application and
start from fresh.
Only if the UK has, in fact, actually left. See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from
the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing
that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2,
unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State
concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
[...]
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
There is no provision in the treaty for a reversal of the process and
a return to a status quo. That is unless they decide to make it up as
they go on which would neither be unusual or surprising.
Nothing that the EU does by way of making things up should
come as a surprise. We already have precedents for things like
"stopped clocks" [the room where it is always March 2019 ...]; and
two years [OK, 18 months] is ample time to invent and agree some new
treaty. But there is no need to reverse the process, only to slow it
(a) the date of entry into force of the agreement [which could be, eg,
2117, to allow a century of "transition"], or, failing that, (b) an
agreement to extend "two years" as far as desired [which again could
be 100 years if "necessary"].
Whether any such extension would ever be approved by the Great
British Public is another matter. But "events, dear boy, events", and
"a week is a long time in politics", as two of our more quotable PMs
have pointed out within your and my lifetimes. I can certainly imagine
events [military, political, economic, natural disaster] that would
change the landscape enough to make Brexit somewhat of a side-show.
If our next recession happens before we leave then I expect that to be
the time that the four winds of propaganda will be unleashed to tell us
we made the wrong choice.
Post by Andy Walker
[FTAOD, I am not personally in favour of such delays. I hope
Mr Davis has been crystal clear to M Barnier, in private at least as
much as in public, that we are leaving in March 2019 with or without
an agreement.]
It is possible, even likely, that the EU side is still in the mode of
thinking that Brexit can be prevented. There was a number of reports of
EU personnel asking Brits, "How can we stop this?" They hope that the
will of the British is going to change, maybe when we see how bad the EU
is going to make our deal.

It's not done yet.
--
James Harris
m***@btopenworld.com
2017-09-13 14:17:12 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Andy Walker
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
As I read article 50, once the process has started Brexit will be
automatic with or without and agreement.
Yes, but .... See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Should the UK in fact change
its mind, then it will be required to make a new application and
start from fresh. [ that should of course read start from scratch - sorry]
Only if the UK has, in fact, actually left. See below.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from
the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing
that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2,
unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State
concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
[...]
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
There is no provision in the treaty for a reversal of the process and
a return to a status quo. That is unless they decide to make it up as
they go on which would neither be unusual or surprising.
Nothing that the EU does by way of making things up should
come as a surprise. We already have precedents for things like
"stopped clocks" [the room where it is always March 2019 ...]; and
two years [OK, 18 months] is ample time to invent and agree some new
treaty. But there is no need to reverse the process, only to slow it
down.
(a) the date of entry into force of the agreement [which could be, eg,
2117, to allow a century of "transition"], or, failing that, (b) an
agreement to extend "two years" as far as desired [which again could
be 100 years if "necessary"].
Indeed! but your point has already been taken on board in that everything I write here on the subject is predicated upon the expectation that the UK government would never even dream of agreeing to an extension of the negotiation period. To do so would be the equivalent of running up a white flag on Queen Elizabeth Tower.

The EU negotiating team would have the UK team for breakfast.
Post by Andy Walker
Whether any such extension would ever be approved by the Great
British Public is another matter. I would hope not. Methinks it wold be a brave government that would chance its arm in this way.
But "events, dear boy, events", and
"a week is a long time in politics", as two of our more quotable PMs
have pointed out within your and my lifetimes. I can certainly imagine
events [military, political, economic, natural disaster] that would
change the landscape enough to make Brexit somewhat of a side-show.
Certainly a conflagration with N.Korea would be one. Another recession would be another. At he same time, "events" could have two effects. The first would be the derail Brexit, the second would be to push the issue to the hindmost burner so that it totters through by default though I don't wish to overstate the latter possibility.

I feel pretty much the same as you regarding transition periods. The longer This affair goes on the greater will grow the pressure for a re-think and a second referendum the shortest route to a weakening of our position.

If I were negotiating for the UK which unfortunately I'm not, I would be quite happy for the other side to procrastinate and would encourage them so to do. I would be content to let the negotiating time run out and end up with no deal.

Unlike many, I do not fear all our trade being subject to WTO arrangements around 80% of world trade (including some of our own) is. The WTO was set up to liberalise world trade and reduce tariffs if not get rid of them altogether. I see no such ambition within the EU. Mr Corbyn, a closet Brexiteer, is anxious that the UK might become another Hong Kong. I wish! He clearly has never been to Hong Kong or Singapore. I've been to both and they buzz! Judging by the per capita GDP figure for both places they have no need to starve either.

The advantage the UK has over both is that here we have plenty of room to breathe. Be that as maybe, I believe there is plenty of opportunity and adventure outside the EU. My one anxiety is whether our present political establishment on both sides of the house have the imagination and drive to take advantage of it.

They'd rather spend their time scoring points against each other
James Harris
2017-09-13 00:13:36 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Post by James Harris
FYI - politician Andrew Adonis has set out what he calls "the game plan
to stop Brexit". How to subvert the largest ever democratic vote of the
British people. Makes for an interesting read to see the strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/09/brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill-second-referendum
My take: There is a danger to Brexit. But the LibDems may have
inadvertently shot the idea in the foot in the last election.
I should explain the comment. I mean that if the unelected Lords try to
push for another in/out referendum then they have to face the fact that
the electorate recently rejected the party who offered exactly that.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
it would seem that the master plan suffers from a somewhat fatal double flaw.
In the first place there would seem to be no contingency plan for the scenario that no agreement is reached. Article 50 then *prescribes* that in that event then WTO arrangements will apply.
At least, it prescribes that the EU loses control over the seceding state.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
Whilst it is conceivable that a referendum might be held to consider any deal made, it's hard to see how a referendum could be held on a deal that has not been made.
The second centres on the scenario that a deal is done and our referendum turns it down. Doesn't that deal then become a no deal with similar consequences.
What is the origin of the idea that the EU will play along with the idea that a second referendum will reopen the negotiations.
The EU don't have a legal option to do so, AFAICS, as you mention below.
Unless they change their treaty then a Gina Miller-style challenge ought
to be able to reject it.

The origin of the idea might be that various Europeans have said the UK
can change its mind if it wants to. Unfortunately, no journalist I've
seen has challenged them in their claim.

Fortunately, at least so far, the British public have shown no appetite
to reverse the referendum decision.
Post by m***@btopenworld.com
As I read article 50, once the process has started Brexit will be automatic with or without and agreement. Should the UK in fact change its mind, then it will be required to make a new application and start from fresh.
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49 [application to join]
In these days that would mean unanimous support from the council and a requirement to engage in the Euro project.
There is no provision in the treaty for a reversal of the process and a return to a status quo. That is unless they decide to make it up as they go on which would neither be unusual or surprising.
Agreed.
--
James Harris
Loading...