2019-11-02 06:17:45 UTC
the wind is blowing in terms of politics in the UK. I correctly predicted
early in Corbyn’s 2015 leadership campaign that he was on for a landslide;
that Leave was likely to win the 2016 EU referendum; and that Labour would
out-perform expectations in the 2017 General Election and scupper Theresa
May’s plans. I also predicted way back in early-2017, when Article 50 was
voted through by the British Parliament, that Brexit wasn’t going to happen
two years later, and almost certainly wouldn’t happen at all. I was proved
right on the first part of that prediction when May extended Article 50 to
Halloween, and then again when Boris Johnson extended it to January 31st
2020. I still expect to be proved right on the second clause of that
prediction; Brexit ain’t gonna happen. Feel free to quote me on that!
Truth is, it’s not difficult to do. It just requires a modicum of objective
thought and some fairly casual observation of the way conversation about
these matters ebbs and flows, online and offline. I mean, I really wanted
Ed Miliband to win the 2015 General Election but, deep down, I knew it was
a tough ask as he was such a soft target for his enemies. Absolutely
terrified of his own shadow, Miliband was terrorised by the media and
forced in to making endless needless mistakes, throughout his leadership
but particularly so during the 2015 campaign. He became a national joke
because of it. Labour lost that one, badly, but that horrifying loss opened
the door for the Left’s resurrection in Jeremy Corbyn.
Barely being aware of Corbyn before that leadership campaign, it didn’t
take many of his speeches to turn me into a Corbynite. He proposed simple,
just concepts such as equality, pacifism, compassion, and restructuring the
economic system so it works for the people rather than The Man. What’s
wrong with all that? The backdrop in the country at the time was one of
ruination at the hands of the financial crisis and the Tory/Lib Dem
Coalition government. David Cameron had just secured a majority for the
Tories to ramp up their attack on, well, everybody who isn’t a millionaire.
The time was right for a straightforward man of integrity to drive a bus
through the bullshit and deliver justice to the masses. It was obvious that
Corbyn would demolish the tepid centrism of the other leadership hopefuls.
The Centrists in the Labour PLP went absolutely mental after Corbyn won the
leadership in a crushing landslide and spent much of the next couple of
years going after him but all for nought; Corbyn owns Labour now.
We’re now going into *another* snap General Election, Brexit remains
unresolved, the economy is in absolute bits, and the electorate is rattier
and more fed-up of all the horsehit than they have been for a long time.
Polls have been up and down all year. The culture wars rage on social
media. This is going to be a weird one, no mistake.
That said, I feel quite confident as to the outcomes we’ll see in the
morning of December 13th 2019:
Labour will win the most seats and be the largest party in Parliament
An overall majority for Labour feels unlikely, though
Labour will form a minority government, likely with SNP support 
Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister
I’ve felt this way since the 2017 General Election results came in and
Theresa May managed to hobble on by bribing the DUP; that at the next
election, whenever that might be, Labour had it in the bag. That sureness
was reinforced when May capitulated on her main red lines and signed up to
the softest of Soft Brexits in December 2017. The Tories were now dead in
the water, they just didn’t know it yet.
Reality bit them on the arse throughout 2018 and into 2019 as the terms of
that agreement, essentially locking the UK into the EU’s regulatory orbit
forever, dictated the very limited set of Brexit options open to them. May
desperately spent months splitting hairs about it, always refusing to admit
that she had signed away the supposed freedom that the anti-EU set had long
sought. But it eventually destroyed her, failing in Parliament over and
over again by massive majorities against her deal. It was top LOLs. Labour
made it their official-but-unspoken policy to simply sit on the fence,
refuse to commit to Leave or Remain, and allow the Tories to self-immolate.
Corbyn took a lot of stick for these tactics but he played a winning hand
and it’s going to carry him into Downing Street.
Labour will face a Tory Party now relatively united over Brexit and a Tory
leader committed to a Hard-ish Brexit to satisfy the maniacs in his Party
who demand it in exchange for keeping him in power. But Johnson’s Brexit
deal isn’t anywhere near hard enough for some, not least of all Nigel
Farage who today insisted that, unless Boris dumps his deal and embraces
crashing out of the EU with nothing, Farage’s Brexit party will contest
every seat in the country. This will be carnage for the Conservatives but
it’s difficult to see how Boris could possibly agree to enter a pact by
dumping his sole achievement in Number 10; his Brexit deal.
Farage wants to leave the EU, that’s beyond doubt, but he also wants to
*really* leave the EU, with no connections at all left, and Johnson’s deal
doesn’t really do that despite it being harder than May’s. Farage has been
playing the long game with regards the EU, making a rich living out of it
for more than 20 years now, so he won’t be too dispirited at the idea of
waiting a year or two longer to have another shot at getting the
catastrophic outcome he needs. And in the meantime, he can make hay (and
lots of money!) while the sun shines by causing trouble in the EU and
British Parliaments with his band of Brexit-loving acolytes.
The Brexit Party are a problem for Labour to consider, too, but on a much
smaller scale. Much is made of “Labour Heartlands” voting Leave but the
facts are that most people inclined to vote Labour in 2019 (as in 2017)
voted Remain in the referendum, so Farage will have much thinner pickings
from potential Labour voters as he will from potential Tory voters. The Lib
Dems are arguably a genuine threat to Labour but, again, voters inclined to
switch to the Lib Dems already did so two years ago. There’s not many votes
to lose, despite what the media pundits say about the Lib Dems being the
home of Remain; Labour are offering to negotiate their own version of a
deal and put that to a referendum vs Remain. It’s objectively clear that
this is the only intellectually honest way forward, and left-leaning
Remainer voters will recognise that. If I’m honest, I’d not be surprised to
see the Lib Dems secure less than 10% of the national vote. We’ll see.
I don’t gamble often, it’s a mug’s game, but I have put a few quid on my
predictions above. I’ve also punted £5 on Labour winning an overall
majority, which I don’t expect to happen but the sentimental twat in me
forces me to put my money where my mouth is and get right behind Labour.
I’ll let you know how much I’ve won on December 13th!
 I believe that, whilst there will be no formal coalition, the SNP and
Labour will form a gentleman’s agreement to work together to form a Labour
minority government, in exchange for a 2nd EU referendum (which is already
Labour policy) and a future Scottish Indepence referendum (which is not
Labour policy but they *should* officially adopt a neutral stance on the
matter, in my opinion).
M0TEY // STC
M0TEY // STC