Discussion:
where id brian reay ? ...
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Pamela
2020-05-20 09:54:59 UTC
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where has brian gone?...I hope he is OK
All fine, just busy.
Thousands of retired health staff volunteered to come back for Covid and
surely teachers would too.
Have you been helping get the local schools ready for re-opening? Or doing
some online tutoring to help the kids?
Or he could follow the advice he gives out to others and go fruit
picking....
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a condition
of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are they doing?




--
Keema's Nan
2020-05-20 10:05:46 UTC
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Permalink
Post by Pamela
where has brian gone?...I hope he is OK
All fine, just busy.
Thousands of retired health staff volunteered to come back for Covid and
surely teachers would too.
Have you been helping get the local schools ready for re-opening? Or doing
some online tutoring to help the kids?
Or he could follow the advice he gives out to others and go fruit
picking....
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a condition
of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are they doing?
Wow. A sensible idea.

That will never happen then. Logic is not something our politicians are
required to possess.
Brian Reay
2020-05-20 10:27:41 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a condition
of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.

The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do some
kind of community service or other work in normal times.

The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
--
https://www.unitedway.org/our-impact/featured-programs/end-human-trafficking
Rambo
2020-05-20 13:50:41 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a condition
of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do some
kind of community service or other work in normal times.
The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
Remind us all again...who is paying your Teachers pension?
Pamela
2020-05-20 23:06:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Post by Brian Reay
The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do some
kind of community service or other work in normal times.
The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
As I understand it, some furloughed workers have taken on a second job and
are making a nice side line. Some self employed businesses have not been
affected by the pandemic, yet they too get money from the state.

The press have been calling this bonanza "furlough fever". Even if you don't
get a second income, the joy of barbecues and improving on your suntan while
getting 80% from the state is cushy.
Jim GM4DHJ ...
2020-05-21 07:22:56 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Post by Brian Reay
The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do some
kind of community service or other work in normal times.
The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
As I understand it, some furloughed workers have taken on a second job and
are making a nice side line. Some self employed businesses have not been
affected by the pandemic, yet they too get money from the state.
The press have been calling this bonanza "furlough fever". Even if you don't
get a second income, the joy of barbecues and improving on your suntan while
getting 80% from the state is cushy.
almost sounds like my 10 years of retirement ......
Brian Reay
2020-05-21 08:59:15 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.

Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do some
kind of community service or other work in normal times.
The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
As I understand it, some furloughed workers have taken on a second job and
are making a nice side line. Some self employed businesses have not been
affected by the pandemic, yet they too get money from the state.
The press have been calling this bonanza "furlough fever". Even if you don't
get a second income, the joy of barbecues and improving on your suntan while
getting 80% from the state is cushy.
Typical Remainer mentality.
--
https://www.unitedway.org/our-impact/featured-programs/end-human-trafficking
Pamela
2020-05-21 09:23:09 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
True. That description could have been better.
Post by Brian Reay
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
When the virus arrived the NHS had such poor ICU and ventilator provision
compared to similar countries (and we expected a bigger surge due to
political footdragging) that the UK's priority was to avoid overwhelming
the NHS.

This was achieved partly by restricting hospital access for the elderly in
nursing homes. The "care home carnage" was collateral damage for "saving
the NHS".

The figures of unnecessary elderly Covid deaths grow with each refinement
of the data. We didn't exceed hospital capacity but the morgues were full
of those sacrificed.

It's not exactly been a triumph of government planning and preparedness.
Keema's Nan
2020-05-21 10:49:39 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
True. That description could have been better.
Post by Brian Reay
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
When the virus arrived the NHS had such poor ICU and ventilator provision
compared to similar countries (and we expected a bigger surge due to
political footdragging) that the UK's priority was to avoid overwhelming
the NHS.
This was achieved partly by restricting hospital access for the elderly in
nursing homes. The "care home carnage" was collateral damage for "saving
the NHS".
The figures of unnecessary elderly Covid deaths grow with each refinement
of the data. We didn't exceed hospital capacity but the morgues were full
of those sacrificed.
It's not exactly been a triumph of government planning and preparedness.
But think of all the pension money that has been saved; not to mention
freeing up hospital and care home beds.
Rambo
2020-05-21 22:35:45 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
True. That description could have been better.
Post by Brian Reay
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
When the virus arrived the NHS had such poor ICU and ventilator provision
compared to similar countries (and we expected a bigger surge due to
political footdragging) that the UK's priority was to avoid overwhelming
the NHS.
This was achieved partly by restricting hospital access for the elderly in
nursing homes. The "care home carnage" was collateral damage for "saving
the NHS".
The figures of unnecessary elderly Covid deaths grow with each refinement
of the data. We didn't exceed hospital capacity but the morgues were full
of those sacrificed.
It's not exactly been a triumph of government planning and preparedness.
It's a pity they were too stupid or penny pinching to act on their own
Risk Assessment ie "Exercise Cygnus".

40 odd thousand (and counting) Cadavers is not to be dismissed as a
success.
Roger
2020-05-22 10:37:14 UTC
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Permalink
Post by Rambo
It's a pity they were too stupid or penny pinching to act on their own
Risk Assessment ie "Exercise Cygnus".
That is a very good point. It was known, and recommended, many times over the years that mechanisms for testing and tracking on a large scale should be pre prepared for this type of outbreak. Korea did this following the SARS.

However in a health service that has been cutting back for at least 20 years, providing one thing would have meant reducing others, so I'm not sure if it would have made an overall benefit.

Of course adequate funding for health is the full answer.....let's see what happens!
Roger Hayter
2020-05-21 10:59:51 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I have no informed opinion about the accuracy of Ferguson's predictions
for the progress of the epidemic in the absence of precautions;
however, the fact that his predictions did not come to pass after
massive social precautions to prevent it really does not have a bearing
on the accuracy of the original model which was based on no such
precautions having been taken.
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
The more pressing question is, why we don't as a general rule, insist
those who spend their time avoiding work while claiming benefits do
some kind of community service or other work in normal times.
The problem is, we've too many like Rambo who think it is acceptable to
have someone else support you and want to see some kind of 'universal
credit'.
As I understand it, some furloughed workers have taken on a second job
and are making a nice side line. Some self employed businesses have not
been affected by the pandemic, yet they too get money from the state.
The press have been calling this bonanza "furlough fever". Even if you
don't get a second income, the joy of barbecues and improving on your
suntan while getting 80% from the state is cushy.
Typical Remainer mentality.
--
Roger Hayter
Pamela
2020-05-21 11:32:14 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Roger Hayter
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary. I mean, what else
are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I have no informed opinion about the accuracy of Ferguson's predictions
for the progress of the epidemic in the absence of precautions; however,
the fact that his predictions did not come to pass after massive social
precautions to prevent it really does not have a bearing on the accuracy
of the original model which was based on no such precautions having been
taken.
Quite true. As I recall Ferguson explored a number of scenarios and their
consequences. He took factors like voluntary isolating, isolating only
positive cases, closing schools, etc and then forecast the number fo
deaths for certain combinations of those factors. He also used a couple
of R values which were later revised.

Hard to see how all those could ever be right when we would take only one
path. Yet there are headlines like "Neil Ferguson ... who predicted
500,000 deaths".

On page 13 of his (now dated) report he predicts 48,000 deaths if we take
all mesaures but delay before implementing them. That is rather accurate
considering the govt has currently announced 34,000 deaths and the
prediction is this could rise to be 55,000 excess deaths.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fel
lowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Pancho
2020-05-21 16:45:34 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.

The simplest model out there IFR * (1-1/R0) * UK population (herd
immunity). Gives a do nothing scenario about 350,000 dead in the UK,
(IFR=0.9%, R0=2.4). Probably more like 400,000 to 500,000, because the
disease wouldn't just disappear when herd immunity was reached. There is
also SIR, a very simple ODE model to confirm this.

So maybe Fergusson was a crap programmer, but those are the basic
figures. To get different ones he would need to make different
assumptions. I'm not seeing anyone say his assumptions were
unreasonable, given what he knew at the time, given what we know now.

The only reasonable suggestion I have seen that might contradict the
high mortality predictions is the idea of super-spreaders, dramatically
reducing the herd immunity level. So maybe his modelling was wrong, but
there doesn't seem to have been a better authority at the time.

Bear in mind I actually agree the lock down was probably an over
reaction, but Boris would have needed balls the size of a planet to have
acted differently.
Brian Reay
2020-05-21 20:35:48 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.

He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
--
https://www.unitedway.org/our-impact/featured-programs/end-human-trafficking
Pancho
2020-05-22 07:24:26 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.
Of course it is my problem. It would be wonderful if nothing confused me.
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
I've not seen it torn to shreds. I've seen it be smeared. The smears
seem to be along the lines of spelling trolls.
Jim GM4DHJ ...
2020-05-22 07:31:47 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.
Of course it is my problem. It would be wonderful if nothing confused me.
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
I've not seen it torn to shreds. I've seen it be smeared. The smears
seem to be along the lines of spelling trolls.
tee hee
Brian Reay
2020-05-22 09:37:17 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else are
they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.
Of course it is my problem. It would be wonderful if nothing confused me.
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
I've not seen it torn to shreds. I've seen it be smeared.
If you say so.
--
https://www.antislavery.org/slavery-today/forced-labour/
Pamela
2020-05-22 10:17:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as
a condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what
else are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the Nightingale
hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.
Of course it is my problem. It would be wonderful if nothing confused me.
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the
Chinese Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn
to shreds.
I've not seen it torn to shreds. I've seen it be smeared.
If you say so.
As you're a former maths teacher I was interested to see if you might explain
some of Rambo's points in a mathematical way. Do you have any insight you
might offer?
Pamela
2020-05-22 10:17:33 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as
a condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what
else are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it seems
the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model
you panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
That is your problem.
Of course it is my problem. It would be wonderful if nothing confused me.
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the
Chinese Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn
to shreds.
I've not seen it torn to shreds. I've seen it be smeared.
If you say so.
As you're a former maths teacher I was interested to see if you might
explain some of Rambo's points in a mathematical way. Do you have any
insight you might offer?
s/Rambo/Pancho/
Roger
2020-05-22 10:31:20 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
Torn to shreds by peers or political activists? Seeing as how nobody predicted events in Europe I would imagine quite a few of his peers are embarrassed as well. Did anybody do an accurate model?

AFAIK all modelling for the R number is shaky and like all such analysis the precision is very much dependent on sample size and quality. At the start of the outbreak there would have been limited data.
Keema's Nan
2020-05-22 10:57:07 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Roger
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the Chinese
Virus wasn’t peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn to shreds.
Torn to shreds by peers or political activists? Seeing as how nobody
predicted events in Europe I would imagine quite a few of his peers are
embarrassed as well. Did anybody do an accurate model?
AFAIK all modelling for the R number is shaky and like all such analysis the
precision is very much dependent on sample size and quality. At the start of
the outbreak there would have been limited data.
Ok, clever dick. What would you do?

Or are you constrained by the Official Secrets Act from giving an opinion?
Pamela
2020-05-22 15:27:55 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Keema's Nan
Post by Roger
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the
Chinese Virus wasn't peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn
to shreds.
Torn to shreds by peers or political activists? Seeing as how nobody
predicted events in Europe I would imagine quite a few of his peers are
embarrassed as well. Did anybody do an accurate model?
AFAIK all modelling for the R number is shaky and like all such
analysis the precision is very much dependent on sample size and
quality. At the start of the outbreak there would have been limited
data.
Ok, clever dick. What would you do?
Or are you constrained by the Official Secrets Act from giving an opinion?
Roger has been mad keen to defend every aspect of UK government scientific
advise.

He wouldn't answer when I twice asked about his involvement with the
establishment. I draw my own conclusions.
Keema's Nan
2020-05-22 16:16:34 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Keema's Nan
Post by Roger
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the
Chinese Virus wasn't peer reviewed, and has subsequently been torn
to shreds.
Torn to shreds by peers or political activists? Seeing as how nobody
predicted events in Europe I would imagine quite a few of his peers are
embarrassed as well. Did anybody do an accurate model?
AFAIK all modelling for the R number is shaky and like all such
analysis the precision is very much dependent on sample size and
quality. At the start of the outbreak there would have been limited
data.
Ok, clever dick. What would you do?
Or are you constrained by the Official Secrets Act from giving an opinion?
Roger has been mad keen to defend every aspect of UK government scientific
advise.
He wouldn't answer when I twice asked about his involvement with the
establishment. I draw my own conclusions.
Same here.

He was keen to score ego points over me almost every time I posted something
with a naive slant, but after I asked him if he worked for the foreign office
or home office he has ignored my posts completely.

Either he has kf’d me (which is what tends to happen when people get far
too close to the truth with these establishment placemen) or he has pretended
to.

What ever he is expected to do anonymously, he is not very good at it. The
other day, his posts were arriving via a German router, but that might simply
be a VPN anomaly.
Pamela
2020-05-22 18:35:30 UTC
Reply
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Post by Keema's Nan
Post by Pamela
Post by Keema's Nan
Post by Roger
Post by Brian Reay
He has a history of failed models/ predictions, his one for the
Chinese Virus wasn't peer reviewed, and has subsequently been
torn to shreds.
Torn to shreds by peers or political activists? Seeing as how
nobody predicted events in Europe I would imagine quite a few of
his peers are embarrassed as well. Did anybody do an accurate
model?
AFAIK all modelling for the R number is shaky and like all such
analysis the precision is very much dependent on sample size and
quality. At the start of the outbreak there would have been limited
data.
Ok, clever dick. What would you do?
Or are you constrained by the Official Secrets Act from giving an opinion?
Roger has been mad keen to defend every aspect of UK government
scientific advise.
He wouldn't answer when I twice asked about his involvement with the
establishment. I draw my own conclusions.
Same here.
He was keen to score ego points over me almost every time I posted
something with a naive slant, but after I asked him if he worked for the
foreign office or home office he has ignored my posts completely.
Either he has kf'd me (which is what tends to happen when people get
far too close to the truth with these establishment placemen) or he has
pretended to.
What ever he is expected to do anonymously, he is not very good at it.
The other day, his posts were arriving via a German router, but that
might simply be a VPN anomaly.
He seems devoted to toeing the government propaganda line. He shows a
god-like reverence for the scientific and medical puppets wheeled out for
the daily briefing.

He acts a lot like a government stooge planted to sway our opinions.
Roger
2020-05-22 10:13:26 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pancho
Bear in mind I actually agree the lock down was probably an over
reaction, but Boris would have needed balls the size of a planet to have
acted differently.
I think lockdown was an overeaction primarily influenced by events that happened in elsewhere in Europe.

Initially Europe adopted the same contain strategy that was used in the earlier SARS outbreak.

The worst situation was in Italy which had resulted in several villages being sealed off with a military cordon. Drivers taking supplies into the area stayed in the cab as goods were off loaded.

And yet the virus did spread outside these areas, but also things were happening in ways that were not understood. Italy started introducing additional (but totally ineffective measures) in norther regions. But this did not change the strange behaviour.

On the 5th of March the UK scientists announced that the virus may now be spreading person to person in the UK. At that time the UK had 114 know infections and 1 death, so this analysis hardly came from large scale statistical analysis!

On the 6th of March, Italian authorities published triage procedures to be used when hospitals were overloaded. (This did happen in a few areas and elderly patients ill with Coronavirus were sent into care homes, essentially to die, in order to make hospital space for younger patients in the overrun hospitals.

On the 8th of March Italy abandoned containment and moved to delay.

The following week all hell broke loose. Bergamo went into meltdown, for reasons still not fully understood. On the 11th of March WHO declared a pandemic. On the 12th March the UK passed from containment to delay, and announced that further measures and restrictions would be introduced in the coming days.

Most European countries changed tack in that week as well. However, this situation in Italy continues to get worse, and then Madrid went into meltdown as well.

It seems to me that this uncontrolled and not understood diffusion prompted all of western Europe to batten down the hatches. Within a space of about 2 weeks all western European countries had passed from containment to lockdown (not all countries did lock down, but they none the less reached their maximum levels of restrictions).

For the record, the UK reached it's maximum state of lockdown 3 days before Italy (26th March).

Now people are looking back on the data it appears that the diffusion is not even, some regions have been hit much harder than others despite being subject to comparable restrictions. Pollution correlates much better to the data than many other theories.

But perhaps the most interesting fact that is emerging is that the virus was clearly quite widespread in Europe before it was officially recognised. In fact Italys Patient 1 is now believed to have contracted it from someone returning from Bavaria, not China. A french person, with no links to China, is now known to have had the disease in December.

Before the spread of the virus reached endemic levels, it was slipping under the radar as flu. This meant that the testing containment and modelling that was being done in the early days was right up the creek. Whilst the government was isolating returning nationals on the Wirral, Covid-19 positives were roaming Europe at will. No wonder things did not go according to the models, hence the panic and full lockdown.
Pamela
2020-05-22 10:51:35 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else
are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
The simplest model out there IFR * (1-1/R0) * UK population (herd
immunity).
Is there an exponent sign missing?
Post by Pancho
Gives a do nothing scenario about 350,000 dead in the UK, (IFR=0.9%,
R0=2.4). Probably more like 400,000 to 500,000, because the disease
wouldn't just disappear when herd immunity was reached. There is also
SIR, a very simple ODE model to confirm this.
So maybe Fergusson was a crap programmer, but those are the basic
figures. To get different ones he would need to make different
assumptions. I'm not seeing anyone say his assumptions were
unreasonable, given what he knew at the time, given what we know now.
The Telegraph has published a comment which says "Neil Ferguson's Imperial
model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time".

See Telegraph:
https://archive.is/1IOHq
https://archive.is/jI1ut

I haven't looked into the detailed specifics of what people say is wrong
with Ferguson's program but his result seems more or less right.

The main arguments against him is the messy code although that
doesn't mean it is wrong. Also the program doesn't give the same result
each time it is run although maybe that's to do with journalists'
misunderstanding of Stochastic modelling.

It's not clear what model Ferguson's critics are saying would have been
better than his as they don't offer an alternative.
Post by Pancho
The only reasonable suggestion I have seen that might contradict the
high mortality predictions is the idea of super-spreaders, dramatically
reducing the herd immunity level. So maybe his modelling was wrong, but
there doesn't seem to have been a better authority at the time.
Bear in mind I actually agree the lock down was probably an over
reaction, but Boris would have needed balls the size of a planet to have
acted differently.
Pancho
2020-05-22 16:20:37 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by Pancho
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Post by Brian Reay
Post by Pamela
Perhaps furloughed workers should be required to gather crops as a
condition of getting 80% state-funded salary.  I mean, what else
are they doing?
Some have searched out other work, either paid or volunteering- it
seems the many of those who applied for support roles in the
Nightingale hospitals came from the airline industry for example.
The Nightingales were never used and have now been closed down.
Put on Standby isn't the same as 'closed down'.
Either way, it makes your position look rather silly. Either the
Government measures were far more effective than you claimed or the
Chinese Virus was as deadly as you claimed, and Ferguson's model you
panicked over has a load of dingo's kidneys.
I'm a bit confused by this criticism of Ferguson's model.
The simplest model out there IFR * (1-1/R0) * UK population (herd
immunity).
Is there an exponent sign missing?
No, basically at the point of herd immunity one infected person infects
one new susceptible person. When the number of susceptible people
matches 1/R0 (The rest 1-1/R0 are immune, i.e. been infected). Thus the
transmission number is R0 * 1/R0 = 1. I'm sure Wiki will explain it
better than me.

It's a simple approximation because the disease doesn't disappear when
herd immunity is reached, there is an inertia, more people get infected.
Also R0 is not a single figure for everyone (which may be hugely
significant).

[snip]
Post by Pamela
The Telegraph has published a comment which says "Neil Ferguson's Imperial
model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time".
https://archive.is/1IOHq
https://archive.is/jI1ut
I haven't looked into the detailed specifics of what people say is wrong
with Ferguson's program but his result seems more or less right.
His results are more or less right, because he knew more or less what
they should be, from much simpler models. It doesn't really say a lot
about his model, good or bad. Actually, it does say something good, if
he got a cellular automata model to approximately match SIR, it shows
something was being done right. Caveat, I guess it was a cellular
automata model, I've not seen that confirmed.

In many ways his model was irrelevant. Politician's like to big it up to
shift responsibility. A killer model sounds better than "some scientists
best guesses".

The thing that Ferguson's Imperial paper did was present scenarios, this
could have been done largely without the model. He should have checked
scenario results, approximately, by running at least one other
completely different model. I assume he did.
Post by Pamela
The main arguments against him is the messy code although that
doesn't mean it is wrong. Also the program doesn't give the same result
each time it is run although maybe that's to do with journalists'
misunderstanding of Stochastic modelling.
I think it was less a problem with software modelling and more a problem
with a release procedures/ testing/ quality control.

Ferguson passed out a version of his code without checking it properly.
This isn't really surprising. Ferguson's world probably exploded, he
would have had little time to concentrate on the code. Together with
that, everyone was telling him that he was a rock star, hubris kicks in.
Diligent, but boring, checking goes out the window.
Post by Pamela
It's not clear what model Ferguson's critics are saying would have been
better than his as they don't offer an alternative.
That is a key point. Timely delivery is everything with software. It's
no use delivering fully documented, iso validated, code next year when
people want it now.
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