2019-10-07 09:30:25 UTC
First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every day
until a no-deal crash out of the EU is (hopefully) avoided:
Just for now, please:
Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face it.
Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way.
Forget who wins the next General Election.
That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a frightful
mess of a situation.
Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal.
No deal = instant 3rd country status.
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all
of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the outside,
wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
No deal = resentment. And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal
with the EU as an independent country. First things to be discussed:
The Irish Border
The Financial Settlement
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and within
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more
Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals
will be countenanced.
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR. It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now. We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only
then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like
today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some
medicines, for example, the government themselves admit this.
Shortages usually lead to higher prices too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.
Why are they even considering No Deal? At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, and that's that
you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal. But after
a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals, there
are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and
with each and every service (WTO only covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who wins
the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it, and thereafter the
only remaining issues are who gets to try to be in charge of
minimising the mess.
The politicians don't want you to know all this, they skirt around it
instead. Hold them to account - take back your own control.
No deal must be stopped.
Please do what you can.
Talk to your MP - demand no deal be taken off the table, demand a
genuine deal be pursued. Demand that necessary compromises be made.
Tell them how you'll vote differently if this isn't done.
Demonstrate. Call in on radio shows and raise these issues. Raise
these issues online, on social media etc (please feel free to copy and
paste this, no worries!).
Do this for the sake of yourselves and future generations.
Please, please help stop this no deal nuttiness!
Thank you. :)